The U.S. midterm elections are being held today. Some observers believe the results could be among the most important in recent political history. There’s also a strong possibility that they won’t represent anything close to a monumental shift in American political behaviour.

Some columnists and political commentators have suggested the midterm elections will lead to a “blue wave.” What does that mean? They believe the Democrats could potentially take control of the House of Representatives and Senate from the Republicans. If this were to happen, it would leave U.S. President Donald Trump as a complete lame duck for his final two years in the White House. The only constitutional advantage at his disposal to combat the Democrats would be the presidential veto.

What if the “blue wave” doesn’t materialize and ultimately turns out to be what I’ve defined as a “red preservation?” In the latter scenario, the Republicans would hold on to one or both houses of Congress and retain a certain amount of political power in Washington. It would also help ensure that Trump maintained the ability to pass some or all of his legislation in the final two years of his presidency.

What’s my prediction? The midterm elections will end up with a partial red preservation rather than a full blue wave. I believe the Democrats will win the House of Representatives, and the Republicans will maintain control of the Senate.

It goes without saying that Trump would prefer the Republicans controlled the entire Congress, even if the margins remained as razor-thin as they are now. If it turns out to be a split between the two houses on Tuesday, he’ll readily accept this new scenario.

The reason why the possibility of a blue wave materialized in the first place was because of the president’s struggles in office. RealClearPolitics, a well-respected political aggregate, lists his current job approval number (Oct. 14–Nov. 1) at 39.1 per cent with 59.1 per cent disapproval of his performance. That’s a spread of minus 20 percentage points, which is eye-raising for a first-term or second-term occupant of the White House.

RCP’s breakdown of major issues is also telling.

Trump’s numbers for crime (44.2 per cent approval, 51.5 per cent disapproval) and immigration (43.1 per cent approval, 54.2 per cent disapproval) are his two highest—and neither are terribly impressive. His lowest is inflation (27.1 per cent approval, 70.4 per cent disapproval), followed by the economy (32.9 per cent approval, 64.7 per cent disapproval) and foreign policy (33.7 per cent approval, 62.3 per cent disapproval). With respect to the three biggest international matters facing our world, his best showing is Israel/Hamas (38.5 per cent approval, 54.5 per cent disapproval), with Russia/Ukraine (33.8 per cent approval, 59.2 per cent disapproval) and Iran (32.6 per cent approval, 63.5 per cent disapproval) further back.

The president’s vulnerabilities on these issues (and several others) have become, in turn, the GOP’s vulnerabilities. It’s caused a drop in overall Republican support in the House of Representatives, and has turned several Senate seats into close races or toss-ups.

The Democrats seem to have more than enough momentum to win the House of Representatives. An estimated 45 seats are now leaning or moving towards this party in states like California, North Carolina and Ohio. The Cook Political Report recently suggested a possible gain of 15–25 seats. Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, wrote in CQ Roll Call on Oct. 31, “while they only need a net gain of three seats, Inside Elections’ latest projection is that the party will gain between 20 and 30 seats.”

Moreover, polling analyst Nate Silver believes the Democrats have a 95 per cent chance of winning. He noted this was “a little bit higher than prediction markets, but like I feel decent about that, actually.” In reality, it’s almost a carbon copy: Polymarket is currently at 95 per cent, while Kalshi is at 93.3 per cent.

While anything can obviously happen in politics, it’s fairly safe to predict that control of the House of Representatives will shift from Republican to Democrat. This isn’t the case in the Senate, in spite of many pollsters, polling firms and prediction markets suggesting otherwise.

The Republicans currently have a 53–47 lead in the upper house. There are seven or eight Senate races that most polls have indicated are either very tight or too close to call. This includes Michigan, where controversial far-left Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican candidate Mike Rogers by four to five points. The last-minute decision by Democratic representative Haley Stevens, who lost the primary to El-Sayed by under one per cent, to endorse Rogers could potentially be a difference-maker. Texas has also become a battleground, with Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by roughly 3.5 per cent in a surprisingly tight race in a traditionally Republican state. Things are quite close in several other states, including Ohio, Maine and Alaska.

There has been some late shuffling in these Senate races, with the majority going toward Republican candidates. This could be for various reasons, including sober second thought on the part of some voters, concerns about the impact of a blue wave in U.S. politics, the worrisome influence of democratic socialist candidates in several races—and a growing desire to split the two houses of Congress. If these factors (and others) play a role with undecided voters and independents on Tuesday, the Republicans may be able to save or pick up enough Senate seats to maintain control.

It’s now up to the voters to decide America’s political fate for the next two years. Tuesday’s midterm elections should be very interesting, indeed.

Michael Taube is a political commentator, Troy Media syndicated columnist and former speechwriter for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He holds a master’s degree in comparative politics from the London School of Economics, lending academic rigour to his political insights.